Many players and fans often rely on the VCT standings to, it seems, predict the future Champions winner. If a team is top of the table, then, according to their logic, it is the favourite to win. However, VALORANT has repeatedly shown a completely different picture, with teams that nobody expected to win going on to become world champions. In this article, we’ll explain why you shouldn’t rely solely on an analysis of a team’s position in the VCT standings, and which metrics really do help to predict the champion.
Why Official VCT Standings Don’t Tell the Full Story
The official ranking reflects the results of matches played in official tournaments, but takes almost no account of context. A team may have a good win percentage and have earned a lot of points, yet most of its victories will have been against mid-tier opponents in lower-tier tournaments. Another team, on the other hand, may have fewer points but consistently compete at S-tier against the strongest opponents. On paper, the leader will look more convincing, although the second team’s actual potential may be significantly higher.
When analysing the upcoming Champions tournament, which will take place this autumn in Shanghai, it is far more useful to look beyond just league table positions. Many analysts regularly use valorant team rankings on additional websites, as these often include a wider range of metrics. Data from such tables allows us to assess teams’ current form, results at S-tier tournaments, the strength of their opponents and roster dynamics. It is precisely this approach that helps to identify the season’s dark horses and predict these teams’ rise to prominence.
It is also worth considering the number of LAN tournaments played. Since Valorant Champions is a LAN tournament, the advantage will be with teams that perform better specifically in this format.
Analyzing tournament results on Liquipedia, over the past few seasons there have been multiple instances when teams that were not first in their leagues reached the finals or won international tournaments. This once again confirms that the tournament table is only one of the indicators, not a definite answer to the question of the future champion.
Momentum Wins Championships, Not League Position
In VALORANT, it’s very difficult to stay at the top of your game throughout the entire season. Teams take part in many stages of the VCT, as well as several major tournaments. Teams aiming for top results often experiment in lower-tier tournaments, try out unconventional strategies and even change their line-up. To the spectator, this may look like a dip in form, although in reality the team is simply working towards the long term.
NRG in 2025 played inconsistently, without significant achievements in the first half of the season. However, the team gradually gained form before the Champions, where they managed to surprise everyone and win. Such changes are impossible to notice if you only look at the official standings.
Psychology plays an important role. Players who go through a tough path through the lower bracket or qualifiers often approach crucial matches in much better playing form. At the same time, leaders sometimes lose momentum due to long breaks between tournaments.
The Metrics That Actually Predict Champions Success
If we stop placing absolute trust in the official VCT standings, the question arises: what should we analyse instead?
The first key indicator – results against teams in the world’s top 10. These are what truly demonstrate a team’s actual standard. A run of wins against underdogs looks impressive, but says almost nothing about their chances at the Champions.
The second factor – performance at LAN tournaments. If a team consistently performs well at LAN tournaments, it is well-adapted to the noise of the arena and has a better chance of performing well at the Champions.
The third indicator – win percentage on different maps. Teams with a broad map pool have a significantly better chance of progressing through the play-offs than those that are only comfortable on a few maps.
It is equally important to assess the individual form of the players. Every player on the team must be in good form, have high KDA stats and, at the same time, act in the team’s best interests.
Official Riot Games pages publish only general match statistics, while analytical platforms allow you to see much more detail.
Champions Are Built Through Adaptation
Every season proves one simple truth: the Champions winner almost always demonstrates the best all-round ability and adaptability. This applies not only to changing agents or having a large map pool, but also to preparing maps for opponents, the speed of decision-making and the ability to adapt quickly.
The example of NRG in 2025 is one of the most recent, yet it perfectly illustrates the points made above. The team was not considered the clear favourite going into the tournament, but managed to improve consistently from match to match. This trend is far more important than their position in the official standings.
Another aspect is the depth of the roster. If a player performs poorly in one match, teammates must compensate for their decline. That is why modern VALORANT, like other esports disciplines, increasingly resembles chess, where victory comes not from individual skills but from tactics.
The importance of a coach should not be overlooked. They actually manage all the processes in a match, from adjusting strategy to setting up for the game. A good coach can find the opponent’s weak spot even after a single group stage match.
Conclusion
Putting all the facts together, it can be said that the official VCT rankings remain a useful tool for assessing the season, but are not the main criterion for predicting the Champions winner. The history of the tournament has repeatedly shown that the best teams do not always go into the decisive stage from first place in their league.
Far more important are current form, adaptation, results against strong opponents, the coaching staff’s effectiveness, and the team’s ability to improve during the tournament itself. By analysing these factors in particular, you will significantly increase your chances of making accurate predictions for Valorant Champions.